Water AlliesTier 3
at Michigan AMB Regionals
decks
1
(1.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-3-2
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.5%
avg ELO -2.9 per match
expected value
44.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1195
· median 1195
· range 1195–1195
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
959
Q1 1194
Q3 1364
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 15.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.3% | -5.5 |
| Wind Allies | 13.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 11.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.4 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 10.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.2 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
